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DERIVATIVES · FUNDING TIMING

Predicted vs Settled Funding: How to Read the Data With Price Context

The funding rate shown before settlement is an estimate. The one actually charged is fixed at settlement. They can differ, especially in fast markets.

By ChartsPod Editorial Team · Reviewed by ChartsPod Research
Published · Updated · 5 min read

Short answer

Venues display a predicted (or current estimated) funding rate that updates as the premium changes; the settled rate is what is actually charged at the funding time. Binance's premiumIndex endpoint reports lastFundingRate and nextFundingTime, and its funding history records settled rates with fundingTime. In fast markets the predicted rate can change a lot before settlement. For decisions, treat predicted funding as a moving estimate, use settled history for analysis and backtests, and check time to settlement.

Predicted vs settled

Predicted/estimatedSettled
WhenBefore settlement, updatesAt settlement, fixed
UseLive positioning viewCosts, backtests, history
Binance fieldpremiumIndex (lastFundingRate, nextFundingTime)fundingRate history (fundingTime)
Predicted rate before settlement (illustrative)Predicted rate before settlement (illustrative): T−6H: Predicted +0.02%; T−2H: Rally: +0.05%; T−30M: Fade: +0.03%; SETTLE: Charged +0.03%.T−6HPredicted +0.02%T−2HRally: +0.05%T−30MFade: +0.03%SETTLECharged +0.03%
The estimate moved with price. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

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Using each

Funding timingFunding timing: Predicted = estimate, check time to settlement; Settled history for analysis; Backtests use settled rates at fundingTime; Note interval per contract; Context: price move driving the premium.FUNDING TIMINGPredicted = estimate, check time to settlementSettled history for analysisBacktests use settled rates at fundingTimeNote interval per contractContext: price move driving the premium
Never backtest with predicted rates. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Conclusion

Related: Funding Costs in Perpetual Backtests: Use Settlement Timestamps, Funding Flips Near Settlement: How to Read the Data With Price Context.

Treat predicted funding as a moving estimate and use settled rates for costs and analysis.

Review Predicted vs Settled Funding with bar replay before using it live.

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Questions readers ask

What is predicted funding?

An estimate of the next rate based on the current premium.

Can it change before settlement?

Yes, especially in fast markets.

What should backtests use?

Settled rates at their funding times.

Sources and methodology

Definitions follow Binance's USD-M market data documentation, Hyperliquid's funding documentation and Bybit's liquidation rules, read 17 October 2026. Examples are illustrative, not recorded market data.

  1. Binance: USD-M market data (long/short ratios, OI statistics, klines) — ratio definitions, 30-day retention, kline open/close time.
  2. Hyperliquid docs: Funding — hourly payments, 1/8 of the 8-hour rate, oracle price for notional.
  3. ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.

This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.

CHARTSPOD EDITORIAL EDITION · RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.