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RISK · EXPECTANCY

Trading Expectancy: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included

Expectancy is the average result per trade. Calculated before fees, many strategies look positive; after fees, the edge can halve.

By ChartsPod Editorial Team · Reviewed by ChartsPod Research
Published · Updated · 5 min read

Short answer

Expectancy = win rate × average net win − loss rate × average net loss. A 50-trade journal with a 42% win rate, average net win $410 and average net loss $260 gives 0.42 × 410 − 0.58 × 260 ≈ +$21.40 per trade. With $18 of fees per trade added back, gross expectancy was ≈ +$39.40 — fees take more than 45% of the edge. Use net figures from your journal, and judge expectancy together with sample size.

Worked example

StepValue
Trades50
Win rate42%
Average net win$410
Average net loss$260
Net expectancy≈ +$21.40 / trade
Fees per trade≈ $18
Gross expectancy≈ +$39.40 / trade
Expectancy per trade ($)Expectancy per trade ($): Gross +39.40 $; Net of fees +21.40 $.EXPECTANCY PER TRADE ($)Gross$+39.40Net of fees$+21.40
Fees took ≈ 46% of the edge. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Sample size

With 50 trades, a few outliers can flip expectancy. Report the number of trades, the median R and the largest win's share of total profit next to the figure.

Expectancy reportExpectancy report: Net, not gross; Trade count; Largest-win share; By setup; Rolling window.EXPECTANCY REPORTNet, not grossTrade countLargest-win shareBy setupRolling window
Context makes the number usable. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Conclusion

Related: R-Multiple Journal Reviews: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included, Profit-Factor Journal Reviews: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included.

Plan the same calculation with ChartsPod's position planner.

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Expectancy = win rate × average net win − loss rate × average net loss.

Compare Trading Expectancy across Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid markets.

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Questions readers ask

How is expectancy calculated?

Win rate × avg win − loss rate × avg loss.

Gross or net?

Net of fees and slippage.

Is 50 trades enough?

It's a start; report sample size.

Sources and methodology

Arithmetic uses standard sizing formulas. Fee rates (0.05% taker, 0.02% maker), slippage and funding values are illustrative; check your venue's schedule. Liquidation figures are simplified approximations; exchanges calculate them with their own maintenance-margin rules (see Bybit's documentation).

  1. Bybit: Liquidation process — mark price and margin modes.
  2. ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.

This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.

CHARTSPOD EDITORIAL EDITION · RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.