Trading-Journal Direction Bias in Crypto: When the Common Rule Produces a Misleading Result
'My shorts lose, so stop shorting' can be a regime artefact. A year-long uptrend makes almost any short look bad.
Short answer
Long vs short results depend heavily on the market's direction during the sample. In a strong uptrend, shorts lose more often regardless of skill; in a downtrend, longs do. Before abandoning a side, compare each side's results against a benchmark for that regime (e.g. random entries on the same side), and look at shorts taken with the trend versus against it.
Worked example
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample regime | Mostly uptrend |
| Shorts net | Negative |
| Random shorts same period | Also negative |
| Shorts with trend filter | Check separately |
| Conclusion | Regime, not skill? |
Benchmarking
| Comparison | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Random same-side entries | Regime baseline |
| With vs against trend | Context |
| Different period | Robustness |
Direction results: Trading-Journal Direction Bias: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included.
Conclusion
Related: Trading-Journal Direction Bias: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included, Trading-Journal Sample Segmentation in Crypto: When the Common Rule Produces a Misleading Result.
Plan the same calculation with ChartsPod's position planner.
Open the ChartsPod terminalLong vs short results depend heavily on the market's direction during the sample.
Compare Trading-Journal Direction Bias in Crypto across Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid markets.
Open markets in ChartsPodQuestions readers ask
Should I stop shorting if shorts lose?
Benchmark against regime first.
What's a random benchmark?
Random entries on the same side and period.
What else to check?
With-trend vs counter-trend shorts.
Sources and methodology
Arithmetic uses standard sizing formulas. Fee rates (0.05% taker, 0.02% maker), slippage and funding values are illustrative; check your venue's schedule. Liquidation figures are simplified approximations; exchanges calculate them with their own maintenance-margin rules (see Bybit's documentation).
- Bybit: Liquidation process — mark price and margin modes.
- ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.
This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.
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