Break-Even Win Rates: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included
The win rate needed to break even is loss ÷ (win + loss). Costs move that number more for tight scalps than for wide swings.
Short answer
Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss), using net amounts. For a scalp with a +0.4% target and −0.4% stop, nominal break-even is 50%. With 0.10% round-trip fees and 0.02% stop slippage, wins net +0.30% and losses cost 0.52%, so break-even rises to ≈ 63.4%. Wider targets dilute the cost effect: at 2:1 the break-even moves from 33.3% to ≈ 42.6%. Compare your journal's actual win rate with the cost-adjusted break-even, not the nominal one.
Worked example
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Target / stop | +0.40% / −0.40% |
| Round-trip fees | 0.10% |
| Stop slippage | 0.02% |
| Net win | +0.30% |
| Net loss | −0.52% |
| Nominal break-even | 50.0% |
| Cost-adjusted break-even | ≈ 63.4% |
Nominal vs adjusted
| R:R | Nominal BE | After costs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% | 63.4% |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% | 51.0% |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% | 42.6% |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% | 32.1% |
At 3:1 the target is 1.2%; costs still raise break-even by about 7 points.
Conclusion
Related: Risk-Reward Ratios: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included, Trading Expectancy: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included.
Plan the same calculation with ChartsPod's position planner.
Open the ChartsPod terminalBreak-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss), using net amounts.
Compare Break-Even Win Rates across Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid markets.
Open markets in ChartsPodQuestions readers ask
What's the break-even win rate formula?
Loss ÷ (win + loss), with net amounts.
Why do scalps need high win rates?
Costs are a large share of small targets.
Which number should I compare?
The cost-adjusted one.
Sources and methodology
Arithmetic uses standard sizing formulas. Fee rates (0.05% taker, 0.02% maker), slippage and funding values are illustrative; check your venue's schedule. Liquidation figures are simplified approximations; exchanges calculate them with their own maintenance-margin rules (see Bybit's documentation).
- Bybit: Liquidation process — mark price and margin modes.
- ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.
This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.
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