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RISK · LOSING STREAKS

Losing-Streak Planning: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included

Long losing streaks are normal, not exceptional. Planning for them means knowing how likely a streak is and what it costs after fees.

By ChartsPod Editorial Team · Reviewed by ChartsPod Research
Published · Updated · 5 min read

Short answer

With a 40% win rate, the chance of at least 8 consecutive losses somewhere in 100 independent trades is about 49%; at least 5 is about 98%. If each loss costs 1% of equity plus ≈ 0.1% in fees and slippage, an 8-trade streak takes about 8.5% off the account (1 − 0.989⁸) and a 10-trade streak about 10.5%. Plan risk per trade so the expected worst streak is survivable, and decide in advance what you will review — not change — during one.

Worked example

StepValue
Win rate40%
Trades100
P(≥ 5 losses in a row)≈ 98%
P(≥ 8 in a row)≈ 49%
P(≥ 10 in a row)≈ 20%
Cost per loss1% + 0.1% costs
8-loss streak≈ −8.5% equity
10-loss streak≈ −10.5% equity
Probability of a streak of at least N losses in 100 trades (40% win rate)Probability of a streak of at least N losses in 100 trades (40% win rate): 5 98 %; 6 87 %; 8 49 %; 10 20 %.PROBABILITY OF A STREAK OF AT LEAST N LOSSES IN 100 TRADES (40% WIN RATE)598 %687 %849 %1020 %
Assumes independent trades; real streaks may cluster more. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Plan before it happens

Losing-streak planLosing-streak plan: Max risk per trade fixed; Expected worst streak known; Review trigger (e.g. 6 losses); No size increases to 'win back'; Check costs and execution first.LOSING-STREAK PLANMax risk per trade fixedExpected worst streak knownReview trigger (e.g. 6 losses)No size increases to 'win back'Check costs and execution first
Decisions made calmly, in advance. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Probabilities come from a simple calculation assuming independent trades; regime changes can make streaks longer.

Conclusion

Related: Maximum-Drawdown Reviews: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included, Break-Even Win Rates: A Worked Crypto Example With Fees Included.

Plan the same calculation with ChartsPod's position planner.

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With a 40% win rate, the chance of at least 8 consecutive losses somewhere in 100 independent trades is about 49%; at least 5 is about 98%.

Compare Losing-Streak Planning across Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid markets.

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Questions readers ask

How long can a losing streak be?

With a 40% win rate, 8+ in 100 trades is about a coin flip.

How much does it cost?

≈ 8.5% for 8 losses at 1.1% each.

What should I change during one?

Review execution; avoid raising size.

Sources and methodology

Arithmetic uses standard sizing formulas. Fee rates (0.05% taker, 0.02% maker), slippage and funding values are illustrative; check your venue's schedule. Liquidation figures are simplified approximations; exchanges calculate them with their own maintenance-margin rules (see Bybit's documentation).

  1. Bybit: Liquidation process — mark price and margin modes.
  2. ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.

This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.

CHARTSPOD EDITORIAL EDITION · RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.